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Meta-Analysis
. 2022 Feb 18;51(1):75-84.
doi: 10.1093/ije/dyab216.

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design

Daisuke Onozuka  1 , Yuta Tanoue  2   3 , Shuhei Nomura  3   4 , Takayuki Kawashima  3   5 , Daisuke Yoneoka  3   4   6 , Akifumi Eguchi  3   7 , Chris Fook Sheng Ng  8 , Kentaro Matsuura  9   10 , Shoi Shi  11   12 , Koji Makiyama  10 , Shinya Uryu  13 , Yumi Kawamura  14 , Shinichi Takayanagi  10 , Stuart Gilmour  6 , Takehiko I Hayashi  15 , Hiroaki Miyata  3 , Francesco Sera  16 , Tomimasa Sunagawa  17 , Takuri Takahashi  17 , Yuuki Tsuchihashi  17 , Yusuke Kobayashi  17 , Yuzo Arima  17 , Kazuhiko Kanou  17 , Motoi Suzuki  17 , Masahiro Hashizume  4
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design

Daisuke Onozuka et al. Int J Epidemiol. .

V体育安卓版 - Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group VSports手机版. .

Methods: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. V体育安卓版.

Results: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1 V体育ios版. 7% (95% eCI: -3. 1 to -0. 5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. .

Conclusions: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline VSports最新版本. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted. .

Keywords: All-cause death; COVID-19; Japan; excess mortality; two-stage interrupted time-series design. V体育平台登录.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends in estimated excess risk (relative risk) during the period 14 January–31 December 2020 in Japan by sex and age groups compared with the total (band corresponds to 95% empirical confidence intervals)
Figure 2
Figure 2
The spatial distribution of percentage excess in mortality during the period 14 January–31 December 2020 in the 47 prefectures of Japan in total and stratified by sex and age groups
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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